Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
